Drivers of variation in telemedicine use during the COVID-19 pandemic: The experience of a large academic cardiovascular practice.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 spurred rapid adoption and expansion of telemedicine. We investigated the factors driving visit modality (telemedicine vs. in-person) for outpatient visits at a large cardiovascular center. METHODS: We used electronic health record data from March 2020 to February 2021 from four cardiology subspecialties (general cardiology, electrophysiology, heart failure, and interventional cardiology) at a large academic health system in Northern California. There were 21,912 new and return visits with 69% delivered by telemedicine. We used hierarchical logistic regression and cross-validation methods to estimate the variation in visit modality explained by patient, clinician, and visit factors as measured by the mean area under the curve. RESULTS: Across all subspecialties, the clinician seen was the strongest predictor of telemedicine usage, while primary visit diagnosis was the next most predictive. In general cardiology, the model based on clinician seen had a mean area under the curve of 0.83, the model based on the primary diagnosis had a mean area under the curve of 0.69, and the model based on all patient characteristics combined had a mean area under the curve of 0.56. There was significant variation in telemedicine use across clinicians within each subspecialty, even for visits with the same primary visit diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Individual clinician practice patterns had the largest influence on visit modality across subspecialties in a large cardiovascular medicine practice, while primary diagnosis was less predictive, and patient characteristics even less so. Cardiovascular clinics should reduce variability in visit modality selection through standardized processes that integrate clinical factors and patient preference.

A computer modeling method to analyze rideshare data for the surveillance of novel strains of SARS-CoV-2.

PURPOSE: No method is available to systematically study SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using the data that rideshare companies share with government agencies. We developed a proof-of-concept method for the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions between rideshare passengers and drivers. METHOD: To assess whether this method could enable hypothesis testing about SARS-CoV-2, we repeated ten 200-day agent-based simulations of SARS-CoV-2 propagation within the Los Angeles County rideshare network. Assuming data access for 25% of infections, we estimated an epidemiologist's ability to analyze the observable infection patterns to correctly identify a baseline viral variant A, as opposed to viral variant A with mask use (50% reduction in viral particle exchange), or a more infectious viral variant B (300% higher cumulative viral load). RESULTS: Simulations had an average of 190,387 potentially infectious rideshare interactions, resulting in 409 average diagnosed infections. Comparison of the number of observed and expected passenger-to-driver infections under each hypothesis demonstrated our method's ability to consistently discern large infectivity differences (viral variant A vs. viral variant B) given partial data from one large city, and to discern smaller infectivity differences (viral variant A vs. viral variant A with masks) given partial data aggregated across multiple cities. CONCLUSIONS: This novel statistical method suggests that, for the present and subsequent pandemics, government-facilitated analysis of rideshare data combined with diagnosis records may augment efforts to better understand viral transmission dynamics and to measure changes in infectivity associated with nonpharmaceutical interventions and emergent viral strains.

Trends in national and county-level Hispanic mortality in the United States, 2011-2020.

Hispanic populations generally experience more adverse socioeconomic conditions yet demonstrate lower mortality compared with Non-Hispanic White (NHW) populations in the US. This finding of a mortality advantage is well-described as the "Hispanic paradox." The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disproportionately affected Hispanic populations. To quantify these effects, we evaluated US national and county-level trends in Hispanic versus NHW mortality from 2011 through 2020. We found that a previously steady Hispanic mortality advantage significantly decreased in 2020, potentially driven by COVID-19-attributable Hispanic mortality. Nearly 16% of US counties experienced a reversal of their pre-pandemic Hispanic mortality advantage such that their Hispanic mortality exceeded NHW mortality in 2020. An additional 50% experienced a decrease in a pre-pandemic Hispanic mortality advantage. Our work provides a quantitative understanding of the disproportionate burden of the pandemic on Hispanic health and the Hispanic paradox and provides a renewed impetus to tackle the factors driving these concerning disparities.

Changes in telemedicine use and ambulatory visit volumes at a multispecialty cardiovascular center during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, cardiology clinics rapidly implemented telemedicine to maintain access to care. Little is known about subsequent trends in telemedicine use and visit volumes across cardiology subspecialties. We conducted a retrospective cohort study including all patients with ambulatory visits at a multispecialty cardiovascular center in Northern California from March 2019 to February 2020 (pre-COVID) and March 2020 to February 2021 (COVID). Telemedicine use increased from 3.5% of visits (1200/33,976) during the pre-COVID period to 63.0% (21,251/33,706) during the COVID period. Visit volumes were below pre-COVID levels from March to May 2020 but exceeded pre-COVID levels after June 2020, including when local COVID-19 cases peaked. Telemedicine use was above 75% of visits in all cardiology subspecialties in April 2020 and stabilized at rates ranging from over 95% in electrophysiology to under 25% in heart transplant and vascular medicine. From June 2020 to February 2021, subspecialties delivering a greater percentage of visits through telemedicine experienced larger increases in new patient visits (r = 0.81, p = 0.029). Telemedicine can be used to deliver a significant proportion of outpatient cardiovascular care though utilization varies across subspecialties. Higher rates of telemedicine adoption may increase access to care in cardiology clinics.

Application of the Quadruple Aim to evaluate the operational impact of a telemedicine program.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine utilization has increased dramatically, yet most institutions lack a standardized approach to determine how much to invest in these programs. METHODS: We used the Quadruple Aim to evaluate the operational impact of CardioClick, a program replacing in-person follow-up visits with video visits in a preventive cardiology clinic. We examined data for 134 patients enrolled in CardioClick with 181 video follow-up visits and 276 patients enrolled in the clinic's traditional prevention program with 694 in-person follow-up visits. RESULTS: Patients in CardioClick and the cohort receiving in-person care were similar in terms of age (43 vs 45 years), gender balance (74% vs 79% male), and baseline clinical characteristics. Video follow-up visits were shorter than in-person visits in terms of clinician time (median 22 vs 30 min) and total clinic time (median 22 vs 68 min). Video visits were more likely to end on time than in-person visits (71 vs 11%, p < .001). Physicians more often completed video visit documentation on the day of the visit (56 vs 42%, p = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of video follow-up visits in a preventive cardiology clinic was associated with operational improvements in the areas of efficiency, patient experience, and clinician experience. These benefits in three domains of the Quadruple Aim justify expanded use of telemedicine at our institution. IMPLICATIONS: The Quadruple Aim provides a framework to evaluate telemedicine programs recently implemented in many health systems. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III (retrospective comparative study).

Understanding CGM Metrics in Children with T1D Before and After the COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Order

To slow the spread of COVID-19, a shelter in place (SIP) order was imposed in California between 03/16/2020 - 05/31/2020. We assessed the impact of SIP on glycemic control in a pediatric population with T1D using a continuous glucose monitor (CGM). We hypothesized that glucose control would improve due to increased supervision at home. The retrospective study included 96 patients between the ages of 3-22 years who were diagnosed with T1D at least one year earlier. We analyzed CGM data during three time periods: baseline, SIP, and post SIP (06/01/2020 - 07/30/2020) and compared standard CGM metrics controlling for gender (56% male), race (55% White), ethnicity (70% non-Hispanic), age (mean 11 yrs ± 3.9), and insurance type (8.4% public). The mean time in range (70-180 mg/dL: TIR) increased across the three time periods: from 59.9% ± 15.1 at baseline to 62.8% ± 15.9 during SIP (p<0.001) and maintained at 63.5% ± 16.6 during post-SIP period (p=0.23) compared with SIP. Increases in TIR were seen in both privately insured (2.9% ± 6.0) and publicly insured (3.7% ± 6.2) individuals during SIP vs. baseline with no increase in time with hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dl) in privately insured (0.1% ± 1.4) and publicly insured (-0.08%±1.3). Our analyses highlight the impact of the SIP order on glycemic control. Better understanding of the factors associated with improved TIR could translate to better glycemic control post-COVID.

Improved individual and population-level HbA1c estimation using CGM data and patient characteristics.

Machine learning and linear regression models using CGM and participant data reduced HbA1c estimation error by up to 26% compared to the GMI formula, and exhibit superior performance in estimating the median of HbA1c at the cohort level, potentially of value for remote clinical trials interrupted by COVID-19.

The development and deployment of a model for hospital-level COVID-19 associated patient demand intervals from consistent estimators (DICE).

Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point estimates, may facilitate better managerial decisions, especially when demand overage and underage are associated with high, asymmetric costs. Regional point forecasts of patient demand are commonly available, e.g., for the number of people requiring hospitalization due to an epidemic such as COVID-19. However, even in this common setting, no probabilistic, consistent, computationally tractable forecast is available for the fraction of patients in a region that a particular institution should expect. We introduce such a forecast, DICE (Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators). We describe its development and deployment at an academic medical center in California during the 'second wave' of COVID-19 in the Unite States. We show that DICE is consistent under mild assumptions and suitable for use with perfect, biased and unbiased regional forecasts. We evaluate its performance on empirical data from a large academic medical center as well as on synthetic data.